Latest news with #economic data
CNA
4 days ago
- Business
- CNA
US dollar gains, but set for weekly drop as Fed, BOJ in focus
LONDON/NEW YORK :The U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve was justified in taking a patient approach to cutting interest rates, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity. "The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of U.S. economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The U.S. currency, however, showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the U.S., where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being "overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited." The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. "The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing'," said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar." BOJ MEETING Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.75 per cent this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.3 per cent on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the U.S. this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.5 per cent at 147.66 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.7 per cent fall. The euro was down 0.2 per cent at $1.1728 but set for a weekly gain of 0.8 per cent. The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2 per cent, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-U.S. trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year. [GVD/EUR] In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound. [GB/] The euro rose as much as 0.23 per cent on sterling to 87.27 pence on Friday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44 per cent gain the previous day. Data on Friday showed British retail sales data for June slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May, after figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months. The pound was last down 0.6 per cent on the dollar at $1.3434. Currency bid prices at 25 July 2:57 p.m. GMT Descript RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD High Low ion Close Chang Pct Bid Bid Previous e Session Dollar 97.74 97.451 0.31 per cent -9.91 per cent 97.906 97. index 426 Euro/Dol 1.1729 1.1748 -0.16 13.29 per cent $1.176 $1. lar per cent 1 170 4 Dollar/Y 147.7 146.915 0.48 per cent -6.18 per cent 147.89 146 en 5 .84 Euro/Yen 173.22 172.67 0.32 per cent 6.13 per cent 173.61 172 .52 Dollar/S 0.7967 0.7954 0.16 per cent -12.21 0.7979 0.7 wiss per cent 949 Sterling 1.3431 1.3512 -0.58 7.4 per cent $1.351 $1. /Dollar per cent 341 7 Dollar/C 1.3704 1.3637 0.5 per cent -4.69 per cent 1.3712 1.3 anadian 639 Aussie/D 0.6559 0.6591 -0.47 6.01 per cent $0.659 $0. ollar per cent 9 655 3 Euro/Swi 0.9343 0.9341 0.02 per cent -0.54 per cent 0.9354 0.9 ss 335 Euro/Ste 0.873 0.8693 0.43 per cent 5.52 per cent 0.8733 0.8 rling 691 NZ 0.6007 0.6029 -0.36 7.36 per cent $0.603 0.6 Dollar/D per cent 7 ollar Dollar/N 10.1591 10.1237 0.35 per cent -10.62 10.173 10. orway per cent 3 115 9 Euro/Nor 11.9164 11.889 0.23 per cent 1.25 per cent 11.938 11. way 886 Dollar/S 9.5212 9.528 -0.07 -13.58 9.5555 9.5 weden per cent per cent 174 Euro/Swe 11.1719 11.2135 -0.37 -2.57 per cent 11.215 11. den per cent 5 166
Bloomberg
6 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hungary's GKI Business Confidence Index Plunges to Five-Year Low
Hungary's business confidence index plunged to its lowest level in almost five years, in another sign that the economy could be on the brink of another recession. The gauge fell 2.1 points to -14.8 in July, the lowest level since June 2020, according to the GKI research institute, which compiles the data. Along with deeply pessimistic consumers, the overall economic confidence level slipped to -19.2, the worst reading since the end of 2022.
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks Set to Open Higher as Investors Await U.S. Economic Data and Tech Earnings, Trade Talks in Focus
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.27%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.28% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street, while investors await more news on trade talks, a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, and a slew of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from 'Magnificent Seven' stalwarts Tesla and Alphabet. U.S. equity futures drew support from falling Treasury yields, which extended their drop to a fourth day. More News from Barchart It's Never 'Happened in the History of Tech to Any Company Before': OpenAI's Sam Altman Says ChatGPT is Growing at an Unprecedented Rate Ditch 'Basic' Nvidia and Buy This 'Unique' Chip Stock Instead Tesla Earnings, Powell Speech and Other Can't Miss Items this Week Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! In Friday's trading session, Wall Street's major equity averages closed mixed. Health insurance stocks retreated, with Molina Healthcare (MOH) plunging over -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Elevance Health (ELV) sliding more than -8%. Also, Netflix (NFLX) slumped over -5% even after the streaming giant reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. In addition, Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plummeted more than -35% after the company said another patient had died from acute liver failure following treatment with one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease. On the bullish side, Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the investment management firm proposed changing the structure of its QQQ exchange-traded fund. Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to a 5-month high of 61.8 in July, stronger than expectations of 61.4. Also, the University of Michigan's U.S. July year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a 5-month low of 4.4%, better than expectations of no change at 5.0%, while 5-year implied inflation expectations fell to a 5-month low of 3.6%, better than expectations of 3.9%. In addition, U.S. June housing starts rose +4.6% m/m to 1.321M, stronger than expectations of 1.290M, while building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m to 1.397M, stronger than expectations of 1.390M. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Friday that he sees no evidence of rising inflation expectations, which gives the Fed room to proceed with rate cuts. He also reiterated that the central bank should lower rates when policymakers meet later this month, citing data indicating the U.S. labor market is 'on the edge.' Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.3% chance of no rate change and a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's monetary policy meeting. Second-quarter corporate earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with investors awaiting fresh reports from major companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), ServiceNow (NOW), International Business Machines (IBM), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Coca-Cola (KO), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), General Motors (GM), Blackstone (BX), American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Philip Morris International (PM), Chipotle (CMG), Union Pacific (UNP), Honeywell (HON), and Phillips 66 (PSX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%. Market watchers will also closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers' surveys on U.S. manufacturing and services sector activity for July for any signs of how President Trump's tariff policies are affecting the economy. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and Core Durable Goods Orders. 'As the final shape of the U.S. tariff regime is still up in the air, the recent moderate inflation trend has apparently not helped to reduce uncertainty about the ultimate impact of Trump's trade policy on inflation,' said ABN Amro analysts. In addition, investors will continue to await any updates on U.S. tariff agreements with other countries ahead of the August 1st deadline, when reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect. U.S. President Donald Trump said he's close to announcing a couple of 'big' trade deals. U.S. central bankers are in a media blackout period before the July 29-30 policy meeting, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver opening remarks on Tuesday at a conference focused on capital frameworks for large banks. Today, investors will focus on the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S., which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the June figure to be -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.381%, down -1.13%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.41% this morning as investors digest a mixed bag of corporate earnings, while uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs between the European Union and the U.S. remains elevated. Bank and automobile stocks lost ground on Monday, while mining stocks outperformed. A European Central Bank survey released on Monday showed that Eurozone companies remain confident in their growth outlook but are also facing profit pressures, partly due to trade tensions. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor developments in the crucial trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he remains confident that Washington can secure a trade deal with the EU, but emphasized that August 1st is a firm deadline for the tariffs to take effect. The Financial Times reported on Friday that President Trump is advocating for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any agreement with the EU. At the same time, EU envoys are scheduled to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for potential countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario with the U.S. Investor focus this week is also on the ECB's rate-setting meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% on Thursday following seven straight cuts. Market participants will be watching for any hints on when it might lower interest rates again, though analysts said the central bank will likely seek to avoid sending signals about the September meeting. In corporate news, Stellantis NV ( fell over -2% after the automaker said it expects a net loss of 2.3 billion euros ($2.7 billion) for the first half of the year. At the same time, Ryanair Holdings Plc ( climbed more than +6% after Europe's largest low-cost carrier posted stronger-than-expected FQ1 net profit. The European economic data slate is empty on Monday. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.72%, while Japan's financial markets were closed for a holiday. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, hitting an almost 3-1/2-year high. Construction stocks led the gains on Monday after China began construction of a $170 billion hydropower dam in Tibet. Also, rare earth stocks jumped after Reuters reported that Beijing had quietly issued its first 2025 quotas for rare earth mining and smelting. Adding to the positive sentiment, China's industry ministry vowed to stabilize growth in key sectors, including machinery, autos, and electrical equipment, as part of a comprehensive plan spanning 10 industries. Meanwhile, China held benchmark lending rates steady on Monday, a widely expected move following the release of slightly better-than-expected second-quarter economic data. The one-year loan prime rate, which guides most corporate and household lending, was kept at 3.0%, while the five-year rate, a benchmark for mortgage rates, remained at 3.5%, according to the People's Bank of China. In other news, China confirmed on Monday that it will host a high-level summit with the European Union in Beijing this week, commemorating 50 years of diplomatic relations as both sides seek to navigate trade tensions amid broader global trade uncertainties. In corporate news, Platform companies Meituan, and Alibaba gained between +1.8% and +2.8% in Hong Kong after Beijing summoned the trio and urged them to ease an intense price war as part of its ongoing 'anti-involution' campaign. Investors now look ahead to the July Politburo meeting, expected to take place in the coming days, where policymakers will deliberate on economic policies for the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs economists stated that Beijing is unlikely to roll out broad-based stimulus in the near term, as real GDP growth in the first half surpassed this year's 'around 5%' target. Policymakers are likely to reaffirm their commitment to boosting domestic demand and stabilizing exports, employment, and the property market. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Marine Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday. Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers Tesla (TSLA) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk tweeted Saturday that he was 'back to working 7 days a week and sleeping in the office if my little kids are away.' Block (XYZ) surged over +9% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index on Wednesday, July 23rd. Pinterest (PINS) climbed more than +4% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $45. You can see more pre-market stock movers here Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - July 21st Verizon (VZ), Roper Technologies (ROP), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), WR Berkley (WRB), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Alexandria RE (ARE), Crown (CCK), Equity Lifestyle (ELS), AGNC Invest (AGNC), Wintrust (WTFC), Medpace Holdings (MEDP), Zions (ZION), BOK Financial (BOKF), RLI (RLI), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS), Calix (CALX), Agilysys (AGYS), Dynex Capital (DX), Preferred Bank (PFBC), Hbt Fin (HBT), TrustCo Bank NY (TRST), SmartFinancial Inc (SMBK), Washington Trust (WASH), Home Bancorp (HBCP), RBB Bancorp (RBB), Health In Tech (HIT). On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hong Kong leads stocks higher, yen gains as Ishiba vows to stay
Equities mostly rose Monday on optimism countries will reach US trade deals before an August 1 deadline, while the yen gained after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would stay in office despite another election defeat. Hong Kong topped 25,000 points for the first time in three years as tech giants advanced following strong earnings from Taiwanese chip giant TSMC and news US titan Nvidia would be allowed to export key semiconductors to China. While only three countries have signed agreements to avoid the worst of Donald Trump's tariffs, analysts said investors were hopeful that others -- including Japan and South Korea -- will follow suit. The upbeat mood has been helped by a series of largely positive US economic data releases that suggested the world's top economy remained in rude health, helping to push Wall Street to multiple record highs. In early trade, Hong Kong climbed to as high as 25,010.90 -- its highest level since February 2022 -- thanks to a strong performance in ecommerce leaders Alibaba and and food delivery provider Meituan. Tech has been boosted after Nvidia said last week that it will resume sales of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China after Washington pledged to remove licensing restrictions that had halted exports. A surge in Chinese money supply sparked by Beijing's stimulus measures has added to the jump in Hong Kong's market, which has spiked around 25 percent since the turn of the year. There were also gains in Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta. Sydney and Taipei slipped, while Tokyo was closed for a holiday. The yen strengthened against the dollar after Ishiba vowed to stay on even after his ruling coalition lost its overall majority in Sunday's lower house elections, months after it suffered a similar fate in an upper house vote. The losses came amid growing anger at the surging cost of living, including a doubling in the cost of rice. Analysts said that while the result was bad for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito, the fact that the prime minister would remain in office provided some stability for now. The yen hit 147.79 per dollar in early trade but pared the gains to sit at 148.45 -- still stronger than Friday's finish. The currency had been weighed in recent weeks by expectations a bad defeat would lead to more spending and tax cuts. Despite Ishiba's decision to stay, pressure will grow on the coalition to cut or abolish consumption tax, something Ishiba has opposed in view of Japan's colossal national debts of more than 200 percent of gross domestic product. It also comes as he struggles to reach a trade deal with Trump, who has threatened tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Japan. He said "the deadline of (US) tariffs is coming on August 1. Until then we have to do our best with our body and soul". US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday a "mutually beneficial trade agreement... remains within the realm of possibility". Jiji Press reported that Ishiba would inform a meeting of senior LDP figures on Monday that he will stay in office. If he did go, it is unclear who might step up to replace him now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers to pass legislation. The election result "now raises a host of questions, including whether... Ishiba remains in power or decides to resign, how potentially expansionary could fiscal policy become, and will domestic politics be a hurdle in reaching a potential trade agreement with the US?", wrote Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC. Others suggested the yen could still come under pressure, and possibly top 150 for the first time since March, owing to lingering uncertainty about the leadership. - Key figures at around 0230 GMT - Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 24,944.31 Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,550.33 Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday Dollar/yen: DOWN at 148.43 yen from 148.73 yen on Friday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1624 from $1.1627 Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3415 from $1.3414 Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.65 pence from 86.67 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $67.52 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $69.46 per barrel New York - Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 44,342.19 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,992.12 (close) dan/mtp Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
There's a ‘scary' recession warning hidden in the too-good-to-be-true economic data, Wells Fargo warns
A closer look at recent economic data reveals a decline in discretionary spending on services, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo, which said the metric historically has fallen during or immediately after recessions. That belies the overall narrative on Wall Street that tariffs have not impacted the economy as much as feared. Recent economic data have eased fears that President Donald Trump's tariffs aren't yet causing a downturn or spike in inflation, but Wells Fargo is more skeptical. In a note on Tuesday, economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein dismissed the 'false narrative' that tariffs were having a benign impact, pointing out that consumer spending data has actually been revised much lower from more upbeat earlier readings. 'It never quite rang true that consumer spending was completely unfazed by the sudden implementation of tariffs,' they wrote. 'This mirage was sustained by initial estimates of GDP growth that pegged the pace of inflation-adjusted Q1 consumer spending at 1.8% (annualized); that's three-times faster than what it turned out to be in the third estimate—just 0.5%.' In fact, data on services spending was even more skewed to the upside, as revisions put growth at just 0.6%, down from an initial print of 2.4%. Those trends continued into the second quarter and constitute a clear warning sign largely being overlooked, namely that households are indeed reducing their discretionary spending, according to the note. While discretionary spending on goods has held up, spending on services is down 0.3% through May on a year-over-year basis. 'That is admittedly a modest decline, but what makes it scary is that in 60+ years, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions,' Quinlan and Grein warned. They pointed out that spending on food services and recreational services, which includes things like gym memberships and streaming subscriptions, were barely higher. Meanwhile, transportation spending was down 1.1%, led by declines in auto maintenance, taxis and ride-sharing, and air travel, which had the steepest drop at 4.7%. 'The fact that households are putting off auto repair, not taking an Uber and cutting back or eliminating air travel points to stretched household budgets,' Wells Fargo said. Even increases in spending on goods seem weaker than they appear, as categories like cars and appliances saw big surges that haven't been sustained. That's because consumers rushed to buy items before Trump's tariffs hiked prices, pulling forward purchases to earlier in the year. In addition, the muted inflation data appears misleading too, the economists wrote. Many businesses stockpiled extra inventory ahead of tariffs and have been able to draw on those supplies, allowing them to avoid passing on tariffs costs to consumers for now. Trump's on-again, off-again approach to tariffs may also be delaying those pass-throughs and even encouraging some businesses to eat the costs, especially if tariffs are seen as a temporary negotiation tactic, they added. 'Another too-good-to-be-true development with respect to tariffs is how broad measures of inflation have yet to register a worrying inflationary shock,' Quinlan and Grein said. Others on Wall Street are less downbeat but still see tariffs weighing on the economy. Capital Economics sees tariffs causing a slowdown but not a recession, forecasting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year. JPMorgan expects growth of 1% in the third quarter, about steady with gains in the first half of the year, which saw a contraction in Q1 and a rebound in Q2. Wells Fargo's more contrarian view comes amid a sharp debate over the economic outlook and whether the Federal Reserve should resume rate cuts sooner rather than later. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has pointed to weak job readings in arguing for a rate cut this month. But other policymakers prefer to wait, saying the economy has been resilient while tariffs have yet to full show up in the inflation data. The retail sales report released on Friday showed a bigger-than-expected jump last month with broad gains. But that dataset mostly covers spending on goods. Meanwhile, the latest consumer price index came in below expectations again, but still showed signs that tariffs were putting upward pressure on inflation as well as indications that weak demand may be limiting the ability of businesses to hike prices even higher. 'Consumer spending is simply not as sturdy as we previously thought it was or even as it was first reported to be,' Wells Fargo said. 'We've long held the view that a stable labor market can offset tariff-induced inflation, and that may still be true and would prevent more of a recessionary impulse from ensuing. But consumers have shifted their behavior in the wake of tariffs.' This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
